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Being on the frontline of a digital marketing agency means I’m often the first person a client asks when they have a digital-related question. There seems to be a theme lately, as clients ask me to pinpoint the day that Facebook is going to die and what is going to come next. The opinion I’ve held for the last 18 months is quite simple… Facebook is going to be around for a long time and there is nothing coming to replace it any time soon.

For the foreseeable future, Facebook is only going to increase in size, strength and exposure. A few people have been distracted by how fast Facebook caught up with MySpace and presumed (logically?) that the same was going to quickly happen to Facebook. People were touting the same thing back in the early 00’s when that upstart company called Google surged over Microsoft and Yahoo! search. Many people subscribed to “it won’t last”, “there will be another one soon”, etc. Seven years later (Google was technically set up in ‘98 but it took a few years to really take over) and Google is a powerhouse online. Yahoo! and Microsoft fight over a measly 10% (depending on sources) slice of the Search Marketing pie. The reason is simple. Google took the lead, invested, acquired, innovated and never sat still. As long as Facebook maintain the same ethos there is no reason why in 3-4 years time, they will not be the de facto ‘address & social network’ of nearly all adults. I’ve already seen the little ‘F’ logo appearing on biz cards of ‘new media’ folk.

The problem is that as Facebook growth is a double-edged sword. It is great for me as a user as more of my contacts get a Facebook account because it enables me to stay in touch with more people. The down side is that I have been selective when accepting Facebook friends and already have 300+ (I know someone with 1,300+). In real life it is impossible to maintain meaningful relationships with 100+ people. Why should ‘virtual’ life be any different? It’s not. People are fooling themselves if they think they can be a real ‘friend’ to this many people.

The power of Facebook is realising this and using it as a social tool to empower your ‘real’ life. This is where brands can really enrich user experiences and connect with their audience. Facebook applications (games/ functionality/ etc) are more numerous than friend requests. I stopped deleting them a few months back and currently have about 900+. Just like my Facebook friends, I do not have the time to engage with everyone. I cherry pick. Often this is based on my existing relationship outside of Facebook. Do I know the brand? does it tie-in with an existing ATL (TV, radio, etc) campaign? Is the application productive to my real life beyond Facebook? These are a few of the questions that identify if an application is likely to gain traction with users. A big successful brand and ad campaign is no guarantee that the application will be a success but it means there is likely to be a higher install rate than a total unknown – check out the Indy campaign. Obviously, there are always exceptions to the rule (see a recent blog post about big brand/ big bucks applications that sit around with only 4 daily users).

So, the conclusion for Brand/ Marketing/ Account Directors and Managers looking at Facebook is that for the next 18 months, it is a safe bet to invest in to reach a mainstream adult audience. However, Facebook (like MySpace, Bebo and the other networks) campaigns are most effective when they are not the entirety of the campaign. It is rare that you see an application succeed and deliver campaign goals without any additional support outside of Facebook.